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Our market view - week 44

Released - Last updated

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OIL
Brent fell 2.7 % last week amid concerns about higher supply and faltering demand. Oil supplies have improved in recent weeks with higher output from several producers in the Middle East and North Africa.

Worries that the escalating war in Syria could disrupt Middle East oil supplies pushed Brent above $117 in August. Fading geopolitical risk is now curbing speculative interest in oil. The market is keeping an eye on talks between experts from Iran and six world powers on Oct. 30-31 to prepare the next round of high-level talks on the contested Iranian nuclear programme. Any signs of a deal, with an eventual return of Iranian oil to world markets, would have a negative impact on prices.

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Brent USD/bbl (Source: Reuters)


GAS
Seasonal gas demand will be surging over the next two months. European gas demand will be growing by another 400-600 mcm/d between now and the middle of winter. Prices are expected to remain strong as Norwegian gas supply is less flexible, UK production is falling and stronger spot prices in Asia will limit LNG availability, while Russia is already producing at or near capacity.

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UK day-ahead gas price in pence/therm (Source: Reuters)


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European gas demand mcm/day (Source: IEA data)
Updated